Degerfors IF 0-0 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 19 as Degerfors IF welcome BK Hacken to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's home record at Stora Valla: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. BK Hacken are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Degerfors IF, 3 for BK Hacken and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 4–3 with Degerfors IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Degerfors IF trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
BK Hacken trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 58% versus BK Hacken 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 54% | BK Hacken 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.65 xG and BK Hacken 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.526 / defence 1.299 | BK Hacken attack 0.850 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.320. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.526 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Degerfors IF games / 48 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 16% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 57%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 6.25 | Draw 3.70 | BK Hacken 1.75. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 50% | BK Hacken 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 16% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 37% | xG Degerfors IF 0.65 / BK Hacken 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.526 / def 1.299 | BK Hacken attack 0.850 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.46
BK Hacken xG
37%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 10 August 2025 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Degerfors IF 0 - 0 BK Hacken.
Where is Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken part of?
Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 16% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 57% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Degerfors IF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and BK Hacken?
Record (7 meetings): Degerfors IF 3W | Draws 1 | BK Hacken 3W.
What form are Degerfors IF and BK Hacken in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (0.53x league average) is weighed against BK Hacken's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.65. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 16.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
16%
6.11
27%
3.70
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.9%
Away win
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.10
1.46
BK Hacken xG
6.11
16%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
52%
1.91
Win to Nil
4%
26.23
30%
3.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 17.8 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.46 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Degerfors IF have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 19W 12D 17L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken's form line: 18W 10D 20L from 48 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 1.44 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Degerfors IF have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (9W 5D 9L).
On the road, BK Hacken have gone 9W 5D 9L from 23 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.67 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 19W 12D 17L in their last 48 games (1.44 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 18W 10D 20L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or BK Hacken away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.39 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when BK Hacken won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
3
Draws
3
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and BK Hacken?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, BK Hacken have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Degerfors IF 1-1 BK Hacken.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 61%, BK Hacken 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Degerfors IF) and 56% (BK Hacken). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BK Hacken in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play BK Hacken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 39% of BK Hacken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Degerfors IF's matches and 56% of BK Hacken's.
Do Degerfors IF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Degerfors IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 19, as Degerfors IF and BK Hacken drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.65 xG and BK Hacken 1.46 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. BK Hacken landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.53 / defence 1.30 against BK Hacken attack 0.85 / defence 0.86, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 16% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 57%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 54%, BK Hacken 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
BK Hacken's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.44 PPG, BK Hacken 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.