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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 19 as Degerfors IF welcome BK Hacken to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Degerfors IF's home record at Stora Valla: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.

BK Hacken's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. BK Hacken are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Degerfors IF, 3 for BK Hacken and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 4–3 with Degerfors IF winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Degerfors IF trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

BK Hacken trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 58% versus BK Hacken 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 54% | BK Hacken 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.65 xG and BK Hacken 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.526 / defence 1.299 | BK Hacken attack 0.850 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.320. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.526 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Degerfors IF games / 48 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 16% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 57%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 6.25 | Draw 3.70 | BK Hacken 1.75. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 50% | BK Hacken 30% BTTS from recent games.

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