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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Osters IF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over BK Hacken.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osters IF beat BK Hacken 0-2 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.58 xG and Osters IF 1.38 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. BK Hacken fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.17 / defence 1.57 against Osters IF attack 0.66 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 42% | Draw 25% | Osters IF 33%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Osters IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 63%, Osters IF 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BK Hacken's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Osters IF's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.33 PPG, Osters IF 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights