BK Hacken 3-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 43%, yet in-form Orebro SK provide a compelling counter-argument — this BK Hacken vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bravida Arena plays host to BK Hacken versus Orebro SK in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 29 November 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
BK Hacken's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
BK Hacken at Bravida Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — BK Hacken are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
Orebro SK have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Orebro SK's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Orebro SK are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: BK Hacken 0W, Orebro SK 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2020, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
BK Hacken half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Orebro SK half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 54% versus Orebro SK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 50% | Orebro SK 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.32 xG and Orebro SK 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.134 / defence 0.968 | Orebro SK attack 0.714 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.397. Data: 28 BK Hacken games / 28 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 43% | Draw 31% | Orebro SK 26%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Orebro SK 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BK Hacken at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Orebro SK (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BK Hacken if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 50% | Orebro SK 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Orebro SK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 43% | Draw 31% | Orebro SK 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG BK Hacken 1.32 / Orebro SK 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.134 / def 0.968 | Orebro SK attack 0.714 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Orebro SK xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Orebro SK kick off?
BK Hacken vs Orebro SK kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 29 November 2020 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Orebro SK?
BK Hacken 3 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is BK Hacken vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Orebro SK part of?
BK Hacken vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 43% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both BK Hacken and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Orebro SK?
Record (1 meetings): BK Hacken 0W | Draws 1 | Orebro SK 0W.
What form are BK Hacken and Orebro SK in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Orebro SK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
BK Hacken's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.71x) against BK Hacken's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
43%
2.30
31%
3.27
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.29
0.96
Orebro SK xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
7%
14.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for BK Hacken and 0.96 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
BK Hacken come into this having played 28 games, going 11W 12D 5L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 1.39 PPG from 28 outings (11W 6D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for BK Hacken against 1.39 for Orebro SK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
BK Hacken's home form reads 8W 4D 2L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 1.07 points per game from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
BK Hacken are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.25 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 11W 12D 5L in their last 28 games (1.61 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 11W 6D 11L in their last 28 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Orebro SK away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.00 PPG; Orebro SK away: 1.07 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BK Hacken won 3-0 on 29 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BK Hacken have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
BK Hacken
1
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 2, Orebro SK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2021, when Orebro SK 1-2 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Orebro SK?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 43%, Orebro SK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (BK Hacken) and 50% (Orebro SK).
On the defensive side: BK Hacken keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Orebro SK in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 50% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BK Hacken vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of BK Hacken's recent games and 50% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BK Hacken and Orebro SK tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BK Hacken run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Orebro SK 3-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.32 xG and Orebro SK 0.96 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. BK Hacken beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orebro SK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.13 / defence 0.97 against Orebro SK attack 0.71 / defence 1.03, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 43% | Draw 31% | Orebro SK 26%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 50%, Orebro SK 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Orebro SK's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.61 PPG, Orebro SK 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.