🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Mjallby AIF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of BK Hacken.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat BK Hacken 0-3 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.58 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.21 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. BK Hacken fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.09 / defence 0.90 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.05 / defence 1.02, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 46% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 29%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 72%, Mjallby AIF 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.65 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights