🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

BK Hacken cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IFK Varnamo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BK Hacken beat IFK Varnamo 2-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 2.21 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.56 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IFK Varnamo landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.19 / defence 1.23 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.90 / defence 1.34, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 52% | Draw 20% | IFK Varnamo 27%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 72%, IFK Varnamo 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.65 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights