BK Hacken 2-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees IFK Norrkoping travel to Bravida Arena to take on BK Hacken. The game is scheduled for Thursday 6 August 2020, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
BK Hacken — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 0L across 6 games at Bravida Arena this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 6 home games (83%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bravida Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — BK Hacken are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Norrkoping stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — BK Hacken at 1.60 PPG versus IFK Norrkoping's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
IFK Norrkoping in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BK Hacken 50% and IFK Norrkoping 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 58% | IFK Norrkoping 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 2.55 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.446 / defence 0.633 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.296 / defence 1.565. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.255. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.446 — their λ of 2.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IFK Norrkoping bring a strong defensive rating of 1.565 — this is suppressing BK Hacken's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. IFK Norrkoping have an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — the away xG of 1.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. BK Hacken's defence rating of 0.633 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 12 BK Hacken games / 12 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 69% | Draw 19% | IFK Norrkoping 12%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | IFK Norrkoping 8.33. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.55 / 1.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BK Hacken at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.58 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 17% | IFK Norrkoping 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Aug 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 69% | Draw 19% | IFK Norrkoping 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 60% | xG BK Hacken 2.55 / IFK Norrkoping 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.446 / def 0.633 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.296 / def 1.565 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.03
IFK Norrkoping xG
60%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
BK Hacken vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 6 August 2020 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs IFK Norrkoping?
BK Hacken 2 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is BK Hacken vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
BK Hacken vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 69% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both BK Hacken and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IFK Norrkoping?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BK Hacken and IFK Norrkoping in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.45) and IFK Norrkoping's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 2.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Norrkoping's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.1%), 1-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
69%
1.45
19%
5.38
12%
8.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.58
1.03
IFK Norrkoping xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.38
19%
Draw
8.18
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
8%
12.77
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
1%
104.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.03 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs IFK Norrkoping?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
BK Hacken's recent record stands at 4W 6D 2L from 12 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Norrkoping, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 1L across 12 games — 2.08 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IFK Norrkoping by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over BK Hacken heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, BK Hacken have managed 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — 2.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IFK Norrkoping's away record stands at 2W 2D 1L across 5 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IFK Norrkoping's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BK Hacken are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 2.33 scored and 1.25 conceded. IFK Norrkoping's attacking output running into BK Hacken's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 75%.
Defensively: BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 4W 6D 2L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 7W 4D 1L in their last 12 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.60 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.60 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
BK Hacken have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2021, when BK Hacken won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting IFK Norrkoping specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
BK Hacken
4
Draws
1
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 5, IFK Norrkoping have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when BK Hacken 2-0 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and IFK Norrkoping?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 0%, IFK Norrkoping 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for BK Hacken and 80% for IFK Norrkoping. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BK Hacken keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play IFK Norrkoping?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 100% of IFK Norrkoping's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BK Hacken vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of BK Hacken's matches and 80% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do BK Hacken and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BK Hacken edge out IFK Norrkoping 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat IFK Norrkoping 2-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 2.55 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.03 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.45 / defence 0.63 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.30 / defence 1.56, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 69% | Draw 19% | IFK Norrkoping 12%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 58%, IFK Norrkoping 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Norrkoping arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with BK Hacken winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. BK Hacken (home/away splits) shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.