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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as IFK Goteborg edge out BK Hacken 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Goteborg beat BK Hacken 1-2 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.34 xG and IFK Goteborg 2.08 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.02 / defence 1.52 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.99 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 24% | Draw 22% | IFK Goteborg 54%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 64%, IFK Goteborg 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BK Hacken's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.31 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights