BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees IF Elfsborg travel to Nordic Wellness Arena to take on BK Hacken. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Nordic Wellness Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Nordic Wellness Arena.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: BK Hacken 2.10 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for BK Hacken, 3 for IF Elfsborg and 3 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 4.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 51% versus IF Elfsborg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 51% | IF Elfsborg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.56 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.145 / defence 0.848 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.018 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.298. Data: 57 BK Hacken games / 57 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 48% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 27%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | IF Elfsborg 3.70. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 50% | IF Elfsborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Nordic Wellness Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 48% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG BK Hacken 1.56 / IF Elfsborg 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.145 / def 0.848 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.018 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.12
IF Elfsborg xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Nordic Wellness Arena.
Where is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Nordic Wellness Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg part of?
BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 48% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
Record (10 meetings): BK Hacken 4W | Draws 3 | IF Elfsborg 3W.
What form are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.15) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
48%
2.10
25%
3.97
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.69
1.12
IF Elfsborg xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
6%
17.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.12 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 22W 18D 17L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 24W 14D 19L from 57 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.47 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 1.39 PPG from 28 outings (10W 9D 9L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 9W 7D 12L from 28 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.51 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 22W 18D 17L in their last 57 games (1.47 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 24W 14D 19L in their last 57 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or IF Elfsborg away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.39 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.21 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
BK Hacken's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BK Hacken
3
Draws
3
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 68%, IF Elfsborg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (BK Hacken) and 57% (IF Elfsborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of BK Hacken's games and 54% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of BK Hacken's matches and 57% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.