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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out BK Hacken 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Elfsborg beat BK Hacken 1-2 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.37 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.95 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.17 / defence 1.61 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.92 / defence 0.80, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 27% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 51%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 64%, IF Elfsborg 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BK Hacken's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.36 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights