BK Hacken 3-5 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees IF Elfsborg travel to Bravida Arena to take on BK Hacken. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 July 2024, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Bravida Arena this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — BK Hacken are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: BK Hacken 1.60 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for BK Hacken, 1 for IF Elfsborg and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2023, ended 3–1 with BK Hacken winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 66% versus IF Elfsborg 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (BK Hacken 75% | IF Elfsborg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 2.27 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.217 / defence 1.063 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.799 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.325. Data: 44 BK Hacken games / 44 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 63% | Draw 19% | IF Elfsborg 18%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.59 | Draw 5.26 | IF Elfsborg 5.56. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 80% | IF Elfsborg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jul 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 63% | Draw 19% | IF Elfsborg 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 61% | xG BK Hacken 2.27 / IF Elfsborg 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.217 / def 1.063 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.799 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.13
IF Elfsborg xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 14 July 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
BK Hacken 3 - 5 IF Elfsborg.
Where is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg part of?
BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 63% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
Record (5 meetings): BK Hacken 2W | Draws 2 | IF Elfsborg 1W.
What form are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.22) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
63%
1.59
19%
5.19
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.39
1.13
IF Elfsborg xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
10%
9.64
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
2%
54.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.13 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 25W 5D 14L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 26W 5D 13L from 44 games, 1.89 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.82 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 2.50 PPG from 22 outings (18W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 11W 1D 10L from 22 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 2.16 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.89 scored and 1.05 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 25W 5D 14L in their last 44 games (1.82 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 26W 5D 13L in their last 44 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or IF Elfsborg away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.50 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.55 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
BK Hacken's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BK Hacken
3
Draws
3
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 82%, IF Elfsborg 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for BK Hacken and 59% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 73% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 32%; IF Elfsborg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of BK Hacken's games and 41% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of BK Hacken's matches and 59% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over BK Hacken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat BK Hacken 3-5 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 2.27 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.13 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.13 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.22 / defence 1.06 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.80 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 63% | Draw 19% | IF Elfsborg 18%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a IF Elfsborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 75%, IF Elfsborg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.82 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.