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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as BK Hacken edge out Hammarby FF 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BK Hacken beat Hammarby FF 3-2 at Nordic Wellness Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.67 xG and Hammarby FF 1.18 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. BK Hacken beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.21 / defence 1.10 against Hammarby FF attack 0.79 / defence 0.86, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 48% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 26%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 62%, Hammarby FF 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with BK Hacken winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights