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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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BK Hacken and Hammarby FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 6, as BK Hacken and Hammarby FF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.46 xG and Hammarby FF 1.65 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.10 / defence 1.26 against Hammarby FF attack 1.02 / defence 0.95, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 34% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 42%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 72%, Hammarby FF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.65 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights