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Gais cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over BK Hacken.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gais beat BK Hacken 1-3 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.31 xG and Gais 1.51 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Gais outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.20 / defence 1.17 against Gais attack 0.98 / defence 0.81, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 33% | Draw 25% | Gais 42%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 72%, Gais 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.65 PPG, Gais 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gais (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights