BK Hacken 0-2 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Djurgardens IF travel to Bravida Arena to take on BK Hacken. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 28 October 2020, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bravida Arena, BK Hacken have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bravida Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: BK Hacken 1.90 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Djurgardens IF trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 50% versus Djurgardens IF 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 54% | Djurgardens IF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.46 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.190 / defence 0.872 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.797 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.393. Data: 24 BK Hacken games / 24 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 46% | Draw 32% | Djurgardens IF 22%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Djurgardens IF 4.55. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: BK Hacken 40% | Djurgardens IF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Oct 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 46% | Draw 32% | Djurgardens IF 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG BK Hacken 1.46 / Djurgardens IF 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.190 / def 0.872 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.797 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Djurgardens IF xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 28 October 2020 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
BK Hacken 0 - 2 Djurgardens IF.
Where is BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF part of?
BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 46% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates BK Hacken's attack at 1.19x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
46%
2.19
32%
3.10
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.43
0.97
Djurgardens IF xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
5%
19.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for BK Hacken and 0.97 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 10W 10D 4L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 11W 6D 7L from 24 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.67 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 2.18 PPG from 11 outings (7W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 2D 4L from 11 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.62 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 10W 10D 4L in their last 24 games (1.67 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 11W 6D 7L in their last 24 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Djurgardens IF away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.18 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.55 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 6 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Djurgardens IF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jul 2025, when Djurgardens IF won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 1W 0D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
BK Hacken
2
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 2, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2026, when BK Hacken 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 36%, Djurgardens IF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (BK Hacken) and 46% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: BK Hacken keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 46% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of BK Hacken's recent games and 46% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over BK Hacken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat BK Hacken 0-2 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.46 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.97 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. BK Hacken fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Djurgardens IF outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.19 / defence 0.87 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.80 / defence 1.05, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 46% | Draw 32% | Djurgardens IF 22%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Djurgardens IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 54%, Djurgardens IF 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.67 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.