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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 1-6 hammering of BK Hacken.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Djurgardens IF beat BK Hacken 1-6 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.71 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.09 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. Djurgardens IF outscored their 1.09 projection by 4.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.25 / defence 1.30 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.71 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 52% | Draw 24% | Djurgardens IF 24%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Djurgardens IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 63%, Djurgardens IF 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BK Hacken's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.39 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights