BK Hacken 1-2 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Djurgardens IF travel to Bravida Arena to take on BK Hacken. The game is scheduled for Thursday 19 September 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bravida Arena, BK Hacken have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: BK Hacken 1.60 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for BK Hacken, 3 for Djurgardens IF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Djurgardens IF trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 69% versus Djurgardens IF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 76% | Djurgardens IF 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.91 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.388 / defence 1.267 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.117 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.364. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.388 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 BK Hacken games / 51 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 39% | Draw 21% | Djurgardens IF 40%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 2.56 | Draw 4.76 | Djurgardens IF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 90% | Djurgardens IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 39% | Draw 21% | Djurgardens IF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG BK Hacken 1.91 / Djurgardens IF 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.388 / def 1.267 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.117 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Djurgardens IF xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 19 September 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
BK Hacken 1 - 2 Djurgardens IF.
Where is BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF part of?
BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 39% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 40% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF?
Record (6 meetings): BK Hacken 2W | Draws 1 | Djurgardens IF 3W.
What form are BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates BK Hacken's attack at 1.39x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.7%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
39%
2.57
21%
4.72
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.84
1.93
Djurgardens IF xG
2.57
39%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.68
Clean Sheet
15%
6.90
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
6%
17.71
6%
16.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.93 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 27W 9D 15L record — W-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 27W 8D 16L from 51 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.76 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 2.28 PPG from 25 outings (18W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 12W 3D 10L from 25 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.47 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 27W 9D 15L in their last 51 games (1.76 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 27W 8D 16L in their last 51 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Djurgardens IF away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.28 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.56 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 6 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Djurgardens IF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jul 2025, when Djurgardens IF won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 1W 0D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
BK Hacken
2
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 2, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2026, when BK Hacken 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — BK Hacken at 80%, Djurgardens IF at 52%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 84% for BK Hacken and 56% for Djurgardens IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 72% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Djurgardens IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of BK Hacken's games and 52% of Djurgardens IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 84% of BK Hacken's matches and 56% of Djurgardens IF's.
Do BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out BK Hacken 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat BK Hacken 1-2 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.91 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.93 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. BK Hacken fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.39 / defence 1.27 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.12 / defence 0.87, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 39% | Draw 21% | Djurgardens IF 40%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 76%, Djurgardens IF 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.76 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.