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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Degerfors IF edge out BK Hacken 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Degerfors IF beat BK Hacken 3-4 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.39 xG and Degerfors IF 1.50 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. BK Hacken beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Degerfors IF outscored their 1.50 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against Degerfors IF attack 1.18 / defence 1.08, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 35% | Draw 25% | Degerfors IF 40%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 73%, Degerfors IF 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BK Hacken's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Degerfors IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights