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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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BK Hacken and AIK Stockholm share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BK Hacken and AIK Stockholm finished level at 3-3 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.17 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.50 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. BK Hacken beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AIK Stockholm outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.06 / defence 1.17 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.98 / defence 0.82, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 29% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 45%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 72%, AIK Stockholm 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.65 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. BK Hacken (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights