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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out Sirius 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AIK Stockholm beat Sirius 2-1 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.63 xG and Sirius 0.93 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.01 / defence 0.58 against Sirius attack 1.18 / defence 1.21, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 54% | Draw 25% | Sirius 21%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 45%, Sirius 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Sirius's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights