AIK Stockholm 0-3 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 15 as AIK Stockholm welcome Orgryte IS to Strawberry Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 August 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Strawberry Arena, AIK Stockholm have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Orgryte IS have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, AIK Stockholm have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 52% versus Orgryte IS 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 52% | Orgryte IS 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 2.13 xG and Orgryte IS 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.911 / defence 1.028 | Orgryte IS attack 0.530 / defence 1.461. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.309. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.461 — this is suppressing AIK Stockholm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 AIK Stockholm games / 14 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 68% | Draw 23% | Orgryte IS 9%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.47 | Draw 4.35 | Orgryte IS 11.11. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (68%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 50% | Orgryte IS 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 68% | Draw 23% | Orgryte IS 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 47% | xG AIK Stockholm 2.13 / Orgryte IS 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.911 / def 1.028 | Orgryte IS attack 0.530 / def 1.461 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Orgryte IS xG
47%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 2 August 2026 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS?
AIK Stockholm 0 - 3 Orgryte IS.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 68% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 9% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Orgryte IS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Orgryte IS in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Orgryte IS (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AIK Stockholm's attack rating (0.91) and Orgryte IS's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
68%
1.47
23%
4.32
9%
11.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.85
0.71
Orgryte IS xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
11.19
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
12%
8.44
Win to Nil
33%
3.01
1%
94.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 0.71 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, AIK Stockholm have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 19W 13D 12L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS's form line: 18W 12D 14L from 44 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.59 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AIK Stockholm have posted 1.71 PPG from 21 outings (10W 6D 5L).
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 8W 5D 8L from 21 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.61 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 19W 13D 12L in their last 44 games (1.59 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 18W 12D 14L in their last 44 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Orgryte IS away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.71 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.38 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AIK Stockholm and Orgryte IS runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
AIK Stockholm
0
Draws
1
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Orgryte IS?
From 2 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 1, Orgryte IS have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Orgryte IS 3-4 AIK Stockholm.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 43%, Orgryte IS 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (AIK Stockholm) and 48% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; AIK Stockholm have failed to score in 33% of games; Orgryte IS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 48% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 48% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Orgryte IS run riot with a 0-3 hammering of AIK Stockholm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat AIK Stockholm 0-3 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 2.13 xG and Orgryte IS 0.71 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. AIK Stockholm fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Orgryte IS outscored their 0.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.91 / defence 1.03 against Orgryte IS attack 0.53 / defence 1.46, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 68% | Draw 23% | Orgryte IS 9%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Orgryte IS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 52%, Orgryte IS 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.59 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.