AIK Stockholm 1-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Mjallby AIF travel to Friends Arena to take on AIK Stockholm. The game is scheduled for Monday 28 September 2020, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm at Friends Arena this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AIK Stockholm 0.90 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
AIK Stockholm trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Mjallby AIF trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 35% versus Mjallby AIF 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 35% | Mjallby AIF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.21 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.871 / defence 0.959 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.900 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.381. Mjallby AIF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing AIK Stockholm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 AIK Stockholm games / 21 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 34% | Draw 33% | Mjallby AIF 33%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Mjallby AIF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AIK Stockholm 40% | Mjallby AIF 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Monday 28 Sep 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 34% | Draw 33% | Mjallby AIF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.21 / Mjallby AIF 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.871 / def 0.959 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.900 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Mjallby AIF xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 28 September 2020 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 34% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 0.87x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
34%
2.93
33%
3.08
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.40
1.19
Mjallby AIF xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.08
33%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
10%
9.66
10%
10.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.19 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 6D 9L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (7W 7D 6L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.05 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 3W 2D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.33 points per game from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF in 70%.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 5W 6D 9L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 7W 7D 6L in their last 20 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.22 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.33 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
2
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 5, Mjallby AIF have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Mjallby AIF 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 33%, Mjallby AIF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (AIK Stockholm) and 56% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; AIK Stockholm have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 67% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 56% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out Mjallby AIF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Mjallby AIF 1-0 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.21 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.19 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.90 / defence 1.26, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 34% | Draw 33% | Mjallby AIF 33%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 35%, Mjallby AIF 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.05 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.