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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as AIK Stockholm defy the odds to beat Mjallby AIF 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AIK Stockholm beat Mjallby AIF 2-1 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.38 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.47 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.19 / defence 0.91 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.30 / defence 0.84, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 35% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 40%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual AIK Stockholm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 48%, Mjallby AIF 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.50 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights