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Shock result as IFK Varnamo defy the odds to beat AIK Stockholm 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Varnamo beat AIK Stockholm 2-3 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 2.06 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.87 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. IFK Varnamo outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.01 / defence 0.66 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.99 / defence 1.39, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 65% | Draw 20% | IFK Varnamo 15%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a IFK Varnamo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 47%, IFK Varnamo 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with IFK Varnamo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights