AIK Stockholm 1-0 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm host IFK Norrkoping at Friends Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
AIK Stockholm's home record at Friends Arena: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Friends Arena. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — AIK Stockholm are significantly better at Friends Arena than their overall form suggests.
IFK Norrkoping — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, AIK Stockholm have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, AIK Stockholm have won 1, IFK Norrkoping 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with AIK Stockholm winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
AIK Stockholm trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
IFK Norrkoping trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 38% versus IFK Norrkoping 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 35% | IFK Norrkoping 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.66 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.140 / defence 0.894 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.942 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.425. Data: 31 AIK Stockholm games / 31 IFK Norrkoping games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 48% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 28%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | IFK Norrkoping 3.57. AIK Stockholm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 40% | IFK Norrkoping 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 48% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.66 / IFK Norrkoping 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.140 / def 0.894 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.942 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.20
IFK Norrkoping xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 0 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 48% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (2 meetings): AIK Stockholm 1W | Draws 0 | IFK Norrkoping 1W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AIK Stockholm's attack rating (1.14) and IFK Norrkoping's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Norrkoping's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
48%
2.07
24%
4.13
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.86
1.20
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
5%
19.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.20 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 60 games, going 28W 14D 18L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, IFK Norrkoping sit at 1.50 PPG from 60 outings (26W 12D 22L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.63 PPG, IFK Norrkoping on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 19W 4D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, IFK Norrkoping have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (12W 3D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.75 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 70%.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 26W 12D 22L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 2.03 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.30 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 22 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when AIK Stockholm won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting IFK Norrkoping specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AIK Stockholm
0
Draws
5
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 5, IFK Norrkoping have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2025, when IFK Norrkoping 3-1 AIK Stockholm.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 33%, IFK Norrkoping 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (AIK Stockholm) and 67% (IFK Norrkoping).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play IFK Norrkoping?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 67% of IFK Norrkoping's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 67% of IFK Norrkoping's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out IFK Norrkoping 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat IFK Norrkoping 1-0 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.66 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.20 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IFK Norrkoping landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.14 / defence 0.89 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.94 / defence 1.10, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 48% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 28%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 35%, IFK Norrkoping 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.63 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.