AIK Stockholm 1-4 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm host IFK Norrkoping at Friends Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 17 June 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 0.71 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.986 / defence 1.150 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.622 / away 1.258. Data: 1 AIK Stockholm games / 1 IFK Norrkoping games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 18% | Draw 37% | IFK Norrkoping 45%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 5.56 | Draw 2.70 | IFK Norrkoping 2.22. IFK Norrkoping hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Jun 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 18% | Draw 37% | IFK Norrkoping 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG AIK Stockholm 0.71 / IFK Norrkoping 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.986 / def 1.150 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.622 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.23
IFK Norrkoping xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 17 June 2020 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 4 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 18% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 45% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AIK Stockholm's attack rating (0.99) and IFK Norrkoping's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Norrkoping's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
18%
5.70
37%
2.67
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
1.94
1.23
IFK Norrkoping xG
5.70
18%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
5%
19.49
22%
4.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 17.7 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.23 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Pre-Season
IFK Norrkoping
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 22 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when AIK Stockholm won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting IFK Norrkoping specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AIK Stockholm
0
Draws
5
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 5, IFK Norrkoping have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2025, when IFK Norrkoping 3-1 AIK Stockholm.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant IFK Norrkoping run riot with a 1-4 hammering of AIK Stockholm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat AIK Stockholm 1-4 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 0.71 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.23 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping outscored their 1.23 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 18% | Draw 37% | IFK Norrkoping 45%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.