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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out IFK Norrkoping 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AIK Stockholm beat IFK Norrkoping 4-3 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.56 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.20 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. AIK Stockholm beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Norrkoping outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 46% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 29%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 48%, IFK Norrkoping 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.50 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights