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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant AIK Stockholm run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IFK Goteborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AIK Stockholm beat IFK Goteborg 3-0 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.59 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.16 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AIK Stockholm beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Goteborg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.12 / defence 0.77 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.14 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 47% | Draw 25% | IFK Goteborg 28%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 48%, IFK Goteborg 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights