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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AIK Stockholm cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IF Elfsborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AIK Stockholm beat IF Elfsborg 2-0 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.57 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.28 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IF Elfsborg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.15 / defence 1.04 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 44% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 31%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 48%, IF Elfsborg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.50 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights