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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out IF Brommapojkarna 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AIK Stockholm beat IF Brommapojkarna 2-1 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.35 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 0.81 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.02 / defence 0.61 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 49% | Draw 29% | IF Brommapojkarna 22%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 46%, IF Brommapojkarna 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights