🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 28, as AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.43 xG and BK Hacken 1.15 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. BK Hacken outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.96 / defence 0.82 against BK Hacken attack 1.03 / defence 0.96, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 43% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 30%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 49%, BK Hacken 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

BK Hacken's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.72 PPG, BK Hacken 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights