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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Villarreal cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Real Sociedad.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Real Sociedad 3-1 at Estadio de la Ceramica, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.87 xG and Real Sociedad 1.16 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.19 / defence 0.97 against Real Sociedad attack 1.07 / defence 1.02, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Villarreal 53% | Draw 24% | Real Sociedad 23%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 62%, Real Sociedad 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Villarreal's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights