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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Villarreal and Real Betis share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio de la Ceramica, Regular Season - 9, as Villarreal and Real Betis drew 2-2 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.93 xG and Real Betis 1.04 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Real Betis outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.34 / defence 0.80 against Real Betis attack 1.12 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Villarreal 58% | Draw 23% | Real Betis 19%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 63%, Real Betis 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Villarreal's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Real Betis's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.87 PPG, Real Betis 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights