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Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Rayo Vallecano.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Rayo Vallecano 4-0 at Estadio de la Ceramica, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.62 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.13 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rayo Vallecano landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.35 / defence 0.89 against Rayo Vallecano attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Villarreal 48% | Draw 25% | Rayo Vallecano 27%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 62%, Rayo Vallecano 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Villarreal's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights