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Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Mallorca.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Mallorca 4-0 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.61 xG and Mallorca 1.38 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mallorca landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.19 / defence 1.24 against Mallorca attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Villarreal 43% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 33%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 67%, Mallorca 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Villarreal's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.

Mallorca's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.46 PPG, Mallorca 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights