Villarreal 5-1 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Villarreal (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Villarreal face Granada CF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de la Cerámica plays host to Villarreal versus Granada CF in La Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Villarreal (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal's home record at Estadio de la Cerámica: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Granada CF's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Villarreal's favour (1.30 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Villarreal, 0 for Granada CF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2023, ended 3–2 with Villarreal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Villarreal half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Granada CF half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Villarreal 80% and Granada CF 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 64% | Granada CF 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.75 xG and Granada CF 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 0.936 / defence 1.176 | Granada CF attack 0.801 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.156. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Villarreal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Villarreal games / 25 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 50% | Draw 28% | Granada CF 21%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Granada CF 4.76. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Villarreal if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 80% | Granada CF 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 50% | Draw 28% | Granada CF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Villarreal 1.75 / Granada CF 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 0.936 / def 1.176 | Granada CF attack 0.801 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Granada CF xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Granada CF kick off?
Villarreal vs Granada CF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Granada CF?
Villarreal 5 - 1 Granada CF.
Where is Villarreal vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Granada CF part of?
Villarreal vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 50% chance of winning, Granada CF a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Villarreal and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Granada CF?
Record (3 meetings): Villarreal 2W | Draws 1 | Granada CF 0W.
What form are Villarreal and Granada CF in?
Villarreal (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Granada CF (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Villarreal's attack at 0.94x the league average against Granada CF's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Granada CF's attack (0.80x) against Villarreal's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 64/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
50%
1.98
28%
3.51
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.84
1.09
Granada CF xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
4%
27.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.09 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Villarreal's recent record stands at 7W 8D 10L from 25 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Granada CF, meanwhile, have gone 2W 8D 15L across 25 games — 0.56 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Granada CF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Villarreal have managed 3W 4D 5L from 12 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Granada CF's away record stands at 0W 2D 10L across 12 trips, a 0.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Villarreal are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.08 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Granada CF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 7W 8D 10L in their last 25 games (1.16 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 2W 8D 15L in their last 25 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Granada CF away?
Villarreal's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.08 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Villarreal go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 5-1 on 3 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Villarreal have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Granada CF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Villarreal
1
Draws
0
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 3, Granada CF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when Villarreal 5-1 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Granada CF?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 83%, Granada CF 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Villarreal) and 42% (Granada CF).
On the defensive side: Granada CF in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Granada CF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Villarreal's games and 42% of Granada CF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Villarreal vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Villarreal's recent games and 42% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Granada CF tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Granada CF 5-1 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.75 xG and Granada CF 1.09 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 0.94 / defence 1.18 against Granada CF attack 0.80 / defence 1.32, drawn from 64/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 50% | Draw 28% | Granada CF 21%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 64%, Granada CF 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Granada CF's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.56. That form edge translated into the three points. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Granada CF (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.