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Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Espanyol.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Espanyol 4-1 at Estadio de la Ceramica, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.62 xG and Espanyol 1.13 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.15 / defence 0.95 against Espanyol attack 1.05 / defence 0.96, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Villarreal 48% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 26%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 61%, Espanyol 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Villarreal's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Espanyol's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm. Espanyol (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights