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Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Celta Vigo 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Celta Vigo 2-1 at Estadio de la Ceramica, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.56 xG and Celta Vigo 1.17 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.23 / defence 0.94 against Celta Vigo attack 1.08 / defence 0.81, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Villarreal 46% | Draw 25% | Celta Vigo 29%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 61%, Celta Vigo 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Villarreal's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.41. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights