Villarreal 2-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Villarreal vs Cadiz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Cadiz travel to Estadio de la Cerámica to take on Villarreal. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 24 May 2023, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Villarreal have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Villarreal's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Estadio de la Cerámica this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cadiz — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cadiz's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Villarreal are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Villarreal have won 0, Cadiz 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Cadiz in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 48% versus Cadiz 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 47% | Cadiz 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.95 xG and Cadiz 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.317 / defence 1.024 | Cadiz attack 0.780 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.045. Villarreal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 73 Villarreal games / 73 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 63% | Draw 21% | Cadiz 15%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Cadiz 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 60% | Cadiz 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 May 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 63% | Draw 21% | Cadiz 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 48% | xG Villarreal 1.95 / Cadiz 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.317 / def 1.024 | Cadiz attack 0.780 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Cadiz xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Cadiz kick off?
Villarreal vs Cadiz kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 24 May 2023 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Cadiz?
Villarreal 2 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Villarreal vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Cadiz part of?
Villarreal vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 63% chance of winning, Cadiz a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Villarreal and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Cadiz?
Record (3 meetings): Villarreal 0W | Draws 2 | Cadiz 1W.
What form are Villarreal and Cadiz in?
Villarreal (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Cadiz (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Villarreal's attack at 1.32x the league average against Cadiz's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.72
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.78
0.83
Cadiz xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
2%
45.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.83 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Cadiz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Villarreal's recent record stands at 34W 17D 22L from 73 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 17W 26D 30L across 73 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cadiz heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Villarreal have managed 21W 8D 7L from 36 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cadiz's away record stands at 8W 11D 17L across 36 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Villarreal are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.86 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 73 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Current Season
Cadiz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 34W 17D 22L in their last 73 games (1.63 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 17W 26D 30L in their last 73 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Cadiz away?
Villarreal's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.97 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Villarreal or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cadiz in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Villarreal's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 1, Cadiz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Villarreal 0-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Cadiz?
Cadiz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 56%, Cadiz 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Villarreal) and 36% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cadiz in 36%; Cadiz in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Villarreal's recent matches and 39% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Villarreal vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Villarreal's recent games and 36% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Cadiz tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Villarreal cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Cadiz 2-0 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.95 xG and Cadiz 0.83 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cadiz landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.32 / defence 1.02 against Cadiz attack 0.78 / defence 1.01, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 63% | Draw 21% | Cadiz 15%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 47%, Cadiz 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cadiz's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Villarreal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.