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Shock result as Valladolid defy the odds to beat Real Betis 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valladolid beat Real Betis 1-0 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.00 xG and Real Betis 1.41 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Real Betis landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.68 / defence 1.26 against Real Betis attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valladolid 27% | Draw 27% | Real Betis 46%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Valladolid win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 61%, Real Betis 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valladolid's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Real Betis's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Valladolid winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Valladolid (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Real Betis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights