Valladolid 1-2 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 44% as Valladolid take on Rayo Vallecano.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano meet at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valladolid have collected 0.62 PPG across 8 La Liga outings this season: 1W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.12 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valladolid's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 1L across 4 games at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla this term (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.62 — Valladolid are significantly better at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla than their overall form suggests.
Rayo Vallecano (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayo Vallecano away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.62 for Valladolid, 1.00 for Rayo Vallecano — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Valladolid have seen both teams score in just 25% of their games, Rayo Vallecano in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Valladolid, 2 for Rayo Vallecano and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Rayo Vallecano winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Valladolid half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Rayo Vallecano half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 38% versus Rayo Vallecano 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 62% | Rayo Vallecano 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 0.74 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.647 / defence 0.997 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.789 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.031. Valladolid's attack strength of 0.647 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rayo Vallecano's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 8 Valladolid games / 46 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 26% | Draw 44% | Rayo Vallecano 30%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 3.85 | Draw 2.27 | Rayo Vallecano 3.33. The draw (44%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.55. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.55 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Valladolid's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 44% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.55 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Valladolid 25% | Rayo Vallecano 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 26% | Draw 44% | Rayo Vallecano 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 33% | xG Valladolid 0.74 / Rayo Vallecano 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.647 / def 0.997 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.789 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Draw (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Rayo Vallecano xG
33%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Valladolid 1 - 2 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 26% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 30% chance, and a 44% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano?
Record (2 meetings): Valladolid 0W | Draws 0 | Rayo Vallecano 2W.
What form are Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano in?
Valladolid (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.12 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Valladolid's attack at 0.65x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rayo Vallecano's attack (0.79x) against Valladolid's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 22.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.83
44%
2.29
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Valladolid xG
Total xG
1.55
0.81
Rayo Vallecano xG
3.83
26%
Home win
2.29
44%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.62
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.3 | 17.2 | 7.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.9%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Valladolid and 0.81 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 1.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Valladolid come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 2D 5L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rayo Vallecano sit at 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (2W 4D 2L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rayo Vallecano carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Valladolid — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Valladolid's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.62 PPG overall — Valladolid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rayo Vallecano have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
Attack vs Defence
Valladolid are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 1.12 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayo Vallecano in 75%.
Defensively: Valladolid have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Blended
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Valladolid's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 1.25 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Valladolid or Rayo Vallecano been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valladolid have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Rayo Vallecano in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Rayo Vallecano have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valladolid have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rayo Vallecano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Valladolid
0
Draws
4
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 0, Rayo Vallecano have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano?
Rayo Vallecano have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valladolid tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Rayo Vallecano tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valladolid 25%, Rayo Vallecano 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Valladolid) and 50% (Rayo Vallecano).
On the defensive side: Valladolid keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Rayo Vallecano in 50%; Valladolid have failed to score in 50% of games; Rayo Vallecano in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Valladolid's recent matches and 50% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Valladolid's recent games and 50% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Valladolid have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rayo Vallecano edge out Valladolid 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Valladolid 1-2 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 0.74 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.81 xG, a combined 1.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.65 / defence 1.00 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.79 / defence 0.79, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 26% | Draw 44% | Rayo Vallecano 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 44%. The actual Rayo Vallecano win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 62%, Rayo Vallecano 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rayo Vallecano arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.62. That form edge translated into the three points. Valladolid (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.