Valladolid 1-2 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Valladolid take on Mallorca.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla plays host to Valladolid versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Friday 27 September 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valladolid have collected 0.71 PPG across 7 La Liga outings this season: 1W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.43 goals per game and conceding 2.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.14 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Valladolid have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valladolid at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla this season: 1W 2D 0L from 3 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 3 home games (100%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.71 — Valladolid are significantly better at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Mallorca have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Mallorca are 0.89 PPG clear of Valladolid in recent La Liga fixtures (1.60 vs 0.71). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valladolid lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Valladolid goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 29% versus Mallorca 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 57% | Mallorca 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 0.72 xG and Mallorca 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.610 / defence 0.843 | Mallorca attack 0.961 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.062. Valladolid's attack strength of 0.610 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Valladolid games / 45 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 26% | Draw 40% | Mallorca 34%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 3.85 | Draw 2.50 | Mallorca 2.94. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.58. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.58 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Valladolid's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.58 combined xG gives a 21% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Valladolid 0% | Mallorca 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 26% | Draw 40% | Mallorca 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 32% | xG Valladolid 0.72 / Mallorca 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.610 / def 0.843 | Mallorca attack 0.961 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Mallorca xG
32%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Mallorca kick off?
Valladolid vs Mallorca kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Mallorca?
Valladolid 1 - 2 Mallorca.
Where is Valladolid vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Mallorca part of?
Valladolid vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 26% chance of winning, Mallorca a 34% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Valladolid and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Mallorca?
Record (2 meetings): Valladolid 0W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 1W.
What form are Valladolid and Mallorca in?
Valladolid (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.43 / GA 2.14 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Mallorca (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Valladolid vs Mallorca?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Valladolid's attack rating (0.61) and Mallorca's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.96x) against Valladolid's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.89
40%
2.48
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Valladolid xG
Total xG
1.58
0.86
Mallorca xG
3.89
26%
Home win
2.48
40%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.13
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
17%
6.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.7 | 17.8 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.7 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.3%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Valladolid and 0.86 for Mallorca, a combined total of 1.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Valladolid have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 1W 2D 4L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Valladolid, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mallorca's form line: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Mallorca are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valladolid.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Valladolid have posted 1.67 PPG from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 0.71 PPG overall — Valladolid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mallorca have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.57 PPG overall record — Mallorca travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valladolid are averaging 0.43 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.86 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valladolid have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Valladolid have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Mallorca in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Early Season
Mallorca
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Mallorca away?
Mallorca's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 1.67 PPG; Mallorca away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Valladolid or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valladolid have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Mallorca in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Mallorca go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valladolid have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Valladolid
1
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Mallorca?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 0, Mallorca have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Mallorca 2-1 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Mallorca?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valladolid see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Valladolid) and 33% (Mallorca) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Valladolid and 33% for Mallorca.
On the defensive side: Valladolid keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; Mallorca in 33%; Valladolid have failed to score in 67% of games; Mallorca in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Valladolid's recent matches and 33% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Valladolid's recent games and 33% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valladolid and Mallorca tend to score early?
Valladolid have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Valladolid 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Valladolid 1-2 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 8, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 0.72 xG and Mallorca 0.86 xG, a combined 1.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mallorca outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.61 / defence 0.84 against Mallorca attack 0.96 / defence 0.82, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 26% | Draw 40% | Mallorca 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Mallorca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 57%, Mallorca 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Mallorca's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Mallorca arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valladolid (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.