Valladolid 0-0 Leganes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valladolid at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valladolid vs Leganes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 3 as Valladolid welcome Leganes to Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 28 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valladolid stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 La Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Valladolid have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Leganes — All Games: 1W 1D 0L from 2 La Liga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Leganes have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Leganes are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 1.26 xG and Leganes 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.810 / defence 1.008 | Leganes attack 0.869 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.083. Data: 2 Valladolid games / 2 Leganes games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Valladolid 42% | Draw 32% | Leganes 26%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Leganes 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valladolid as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Leganes (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valladolid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Leganes | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 42% | Draw 32% | Leganes 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Valladolid 1.26 / Leganes 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.810 / def 1.008 | Leganes attack 0.869 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Valladolid (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Leganes xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Leganes kick off?
Valladolid vs Leganes kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Leganes?
Valladolid 0 - 0 Leganes.
Where is Valladolid vs Leganes being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Leganes part of?
Valladolid vs Leganes is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Leganes?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 42% chance of winning, Leganes a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Valladolid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Leganes?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Valladolid and Leganes will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Leganes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Leganes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valladolid and Leganes in?
Valladolid (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L. Leganes (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Valladolid's attack rating (0.81) and Leganes's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Leganes's attack versus Valladolid's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valladolid Win
42%
2.39
32%
3.14
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Valladolid xG
Total xG
2.21
0.95
Leganes xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
7%
13.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Leganes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Leganes expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Valladolid and 0.95 for Leganes, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Leganes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Valladolid have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Valladolid, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Leganes's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W. It's still early in the season for Leganes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Leganes are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valladolid.
The Goals Picture
Valladolid are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Leganes are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valladolid have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Leganes in 100%.
Defensively: Valladolid have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Early Season
Leganes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Leganes in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Leganes have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Valladolid or Leganes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valladolid have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Leganes in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valladolid and Leganes runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Valladolid
1
Draws
1
Leganes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Leganes?
From 2 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 0, Leganes have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Leganes last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Leganes 3-0 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Leganes?
Leganes have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Leganes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Leganes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Valladolid's recent matches and 100% of Leganes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Leganes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Valladolid's recent games and 50% of Leganes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Valladolid's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valladolid and Leganes finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.26 xG and Leganes 0.95 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valladolid fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Leganes landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.81 / defence 1.01 against Leganes attack 0.87 / defence 1.09, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 42% | Draw 32% | Leganes 26%, with Valladolid to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 50%, Leganes 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Leganes arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Valladolid conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Leganes managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.