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Prediction vindicated as Girona edge out Valladolid 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Girona beat Valladolid 0-1 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.03 xG and Girona 1.49 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valladolid fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.65 / defence 1.51 against Girona attack 0.83 / defence 1.14, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valladolid 26% | Draw 26% | Girona 48%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 69%, Girona 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valladolid's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Girona's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.46. That form edge translated into the three points. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights