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Dominant Getafe run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Valladolid.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Getafe beat Valladolid 0-4 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 0.61 xG and Getafe 1.48 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Getafe outscored their 1.48 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.57 / defence 1.28 against Getafe attack 0.95 / defence 0.78, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valladolid 15% | Draw 26% | Getafe 58%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 62%, Getafe 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valladolid's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Getafe's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Getafe arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valladolid (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights