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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Villarreal cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Valencia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Valencia 0-2 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.55 xG and Villarreal 1.03 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Valencia fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Villarreal outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 1.08 / defence 0.91 against Villarreal attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valencia 49% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 25%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Villarreal win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 47%, Villarreal 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valencia's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Villarreal's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Villarreal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights