Valencia 1-1 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valencia vs Villarreal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valencia host Villarreal at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Valencia — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Valencia have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valencia's home record at Estadio de Mestalla: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Valencia are significantly better at Estadio de Mestalla than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Villarreal have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Villarreal have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Villarreal have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Villarreal — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Valencia have won 2, Villarreal 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Villarreal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Valencia in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valencia 44% and Villarreal 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 44% | Villarreal 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.20 xG and Villarreal 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.863 / defence 1.069 | Villarreal attack 1.226 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.005. Villarreal have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Valencia games / 41 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 32% | Draw 30% | Villarreal 38%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Villarreal 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Villarreal are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 50% | Villarreal 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 32% | Draw 30% | Villarreal 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Valencia 1.20 / Villarreal 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.863 / def 1.069 | Villarreal attack 1.226 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Villarreal xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Villarreal kick off?
Valencia vs Villarreal kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Villarreal?
Valencia 1 - 1 Villarreal.
Where is Valencia vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Villarreal part of?
Valencia vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 32% chance of winning, Villarreal a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Valencia and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Villarreal?
Record (6 meetings): Valencia 2W | Draws 1 | Villarreal 3W.
What form are Valencia and Villarreal in?
Valencia (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Villarreal (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Valencia's attack rating (0.86) and Villarreal's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
32%
3.12
30%
3.29
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.52
1.32
Villarreal xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
9%
11.67
11%
8.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Valencia and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Valencia and 1.32 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 13W 10D 18L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Valencia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Villarreal's form line: 16W 12D 13L from 41 games, 1.46 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Villarreal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valencia on 1.20 PPG, Villarreal on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.50 PPG from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L).
On the road, Villarreal have gone 8W 6D 6L from 20 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Valencia are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.78 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 80%.
Last 41 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Early Season
Villarreal
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 13W 10D 18L in their last 41 games (1.20 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 16W 12D 13L in their last 41 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Villarreal away?
Valencia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.50 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Valencia or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Villarreal in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valencia and Villarreal runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Villarreal go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Valencia's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Valencia
3
Draws
5
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Villarreal?
From 10 meetings on record, Valencia have won 2, Villarreal have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Villarreal 2-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 40%, Villarreal 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Valencia) and 60% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Valencia have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Villarreal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Valencia's games and 80% of Villarreal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valencia vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Valencia's recent games and 60% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Villarreal tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valencia and Villarreal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia and Villarreal finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.20 xG and Villarreal 1.32 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against Villarreal attack 1.23 / defence 0.96, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 32% | Draw 30% | Villarreal 38%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 44%, Villarreal 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Villarreal's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.20 PPG, Villarreal 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.