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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Valencia and Real Betis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valencia and Real Betis finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.38 xG and Real Betis 1.35 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Real Betis attack 1.21 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valencia 38% | Draw 27% | Real Betis 36%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 47%, Real Betis 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valencia's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Real Betis's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights