Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Valencia's attack at 1.12x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rayo Vallecano's attack (0.73x) against Valencia's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.63
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.31
0.89
Rayo Vallecano xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
6%
17.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Valencia and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Valencia and 0.89 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.