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Shock result as Valencia defy the odds to beat Osasuna 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valencia beat Osasuna 1-0 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 0.98 xG and Osasuna 1.03 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osasuna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.82 / defence 1.04 against Osasuna attack 0.87 / defence 0.79, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valencia 33% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 35%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Valencia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 44%, Osasuna 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valencia's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Osasuna's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valencia 1.14 PPG, Osasuna 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights