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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Mallorca 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valencia beat Mallorca 1-0 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.40 xG and Mallorca 1.07 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Mallorca attack 0.84 / defence 1.03, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valencia 44% | Draw 27% | Mallorca 29%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 46%, Mallorca 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valencia's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Mallorca's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valencia 1.17 PPG, Mallorca 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights